Separating the Wheat from the Chaff in the Republican Party

       Lately the Republican Party has been struggling like Helen Keller on acid.  After getting taken out back electorally, they subsequently watched two of their most promising presidential candidates Gov Mark Sanford and Gov Sarah Palin flame out.  Rush Limbaugh has ascended to the role of most influential voice in the GOP, a sure sign they're on track to remembered as a modern day Whig Party.  Even Dick Cheney waded back into the waters, only to be embarrassed by stories of his telling the CIA to hide an intelligence program from Congress.  Demographic trends seem determined to consign the GOP to the dustbin, at least in its present form.  The explosion of the Latino population won't benefit a party whose emphatic cries against illegal immigration bordered on xenophobia and racism at times.  Their lemming-like opposition of Justice Sotomayor's nomination certainly won't help.  In addition, America is less and less a Christian nation which will make the party's religious base shrink relative to the overall population (as well as make abortion and gay marriage less relevant issues).  The country's population distribution is becoming more urban as our rural areas decay in many places (GOP relies on extensive rural support).  Finally (yeah, they're really fucked aren't they?), we are seeing a massive immigration from the rust belt into the South and Southeast, ensuring that many safely Republican districts and states in the south will become increasingly liberal as they are filled with northern and midwestern transplants.  

       All of these things are bad news. If the Republican National Committee sold 20 year bonds, its fair to say they'd be paying a fairly high interest rate.  Essentially there are two options here: another party somehow forms and creates a second pole to the Democrats as the Republicans fall.  In my opinion this party would most likely be fiscally conservative, looking for a smaller government but with the understanding that government has a role in the economy.  This new party would be socially liberal (conservative hyper-issues like abortion and gay marriage won't get any traction by 2020).  It would emphasize efficient and effective government and would bring a host of twenty first issues to the table (radical changes in Social Security? a reconsideration of America's massive defense budget and role as world police? massive engagement with the UN?).  It would essentially be Libertarian in orientation.  Seeds of this new party might exist in the Blue Dog Democrats who will receive increasing play as a party within the Democratic party.  

       The second option for the Republicans is a massive reorganization of their ideology and party.  It possible that the Republicans become more socially liberal to accommodate the demographic shift in this direction.  Nevertheless, I find this an unlikely proposition because of the need to maintain their religious right wing base in order to be relevant on the national stage.  Perhaps a slow leftward shift on social issues will take place.  In addition, the Republicans need to understand that the state does have a role in the market place.  The market is inefficient and any basic economics course dictates that government should intervene to correct for some of the market failures in an economy.  In addition, Republican tax and budget policy has solely been concerned with cutting taxes on the higher brackets over the past decades.  Not only is this a pathetic excuse for a platform (they transposed a phrase for posters into an ideology), it isn't what the vast majority of Americans are looking for in changes to tax policy and the budget.  Most Republicans are overly dogmatic and unwilling to give ground on the core platform, inevitable making the party difficult to change.  The Economist had a great article on Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan in the House possibly leading a resurgence within the party.  The GOP needs to shut the Limbaugh-Cheney-Coulter-Gingrich axis up and let the Cantor-Colin Powell-Meghan McCain-Mike Bloomberg axis run the show.